FOOT & MOUTH: A PREVENTABLE DISASTER

Since mid-February, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has spread across the British Isles and on to Ireland, France and the Netherlands. The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) say the disease appears to have spread from a farm at Heddon-on-the Wall in North East England and a possible cause was feeding infected swill to pigs. Virus from this source spread from sheep sent to seven other farms in Tyne and Wear. Sheep from one of these farms were sent to Hexham market on 13^th February and from there to markets at Longtown, Cumbria from whence they were dispersed between 14^th and 24^th February.

From Longtown market, sheep were sent to Carlisle on 16^th February, Welshpool on 19^th February and subsequently to dealers at Highampton, Devon; Lockerbie, Dumfries and Galloway; Dearham, Cumbria; Nantwich, Cheshire; and indirectly to markets at Hatherleigh, Hereford, Northampton and Ross on Wye. This spread took place until 23^rd February before infection was detected and before movement restrictions were imposed. Even then, the attempt was half-hearted and substantive response was not made until after 21^st March when experts publicly stated that the outbreak was out of control.

However, there have been persistent rumours that the outbreak started at least a month before. David Owen, of Farmers First took 400 sheep on his ferry to France on 31^st January which subsequently tested positive and he recalls lambs from south Wales being unfit to export in October 2000. Sheep on the Scottish borders showed signs consistent with foot and mouth in early January. There have been suggestions that the epidemic was caused by MAFF inspectors who visited infected farms or markets, spreading the disease, and an even more astonishing claim that a phial of foot and mouth virus went missing from a MAFF laboratory before the epidemic.

FMD was already endemic in the Middle East (one million sheep died), Africa (particularly Kenya and South Africa) and India (said to be threatening the extinction of the white rhino).

At the time of writing (13^th April 2001) there were 1260 confirmed cases in the UK (27 new cases on 12^th April). A total of 1522 vets from the State Veterinary Service are deployed in tackling the disease. 1842 soldiers are now deployed at MAFF's request. So far almost one million animals are awaiting slaughter, 610,000 animals have been slaughtered, 432,000 carcasses have been destroyed and a further 178,000 carcasses await disposal. The scale of the disaster is epic. And only 10% of farmers have insurance cover against the disease: one of the few insurers still offering to renew cover will pay only 25% of the market value of livestock.

The disease

FMD is caused by a virus and triggers high temperatures and sores, known as vesicules, in the mouths and on the hooves of animals. Symptoms can include lameness and animals going off their feed. It does not usually kill but traditional methods for stopping the spread are to put down infected animals and isolate farms.

FMD is a highly infectious disease of most farm animals except horses. It is spread in three ways:

• Directly, from an infected animal to another animal, by contact, or through the air.
• Indirectly, from infected animals by people who have handled them.
• Indirectly from infected material such as dung, urine, and saliva picked up by people, vehicles, equipment, dogs, scavenging animals and vermin.

An animal can be infectious for some days before it shows signs of FMD and the signs can go undetected, or are much more difficult to see, in sheep than in cattle and pigs. This makes preventing its spread very difficult.

Although foot-and-mouth disease is extremely unpleasant, causing large blisters on the tongues, lips, hooves and udders of the infected animals, it's not usually fatal. 95% of animals get better within 2-3 weeks although they may be slower growing, less fertile and lame as a result. Only in about 5% cases - generally the very young animals - does the disease cause death - usually in the form of a heart attack.

Impact

While the government suggests that the crisis may be coming under control, senior scientists say delay in killing and disposing of carcasses is unacceptable and is prolonging the outbreak. An adviser to the US Department of Agriculture pronounced the killings as misguided and claimed vaccination was a better solution. French ministers called Britain "the weak link" in European agriculture.

Despite propaganda, continued closures and movement restrictions are having a "devastating impact" on agricultural and tourist income. The tourist industry contributes 4% to the UK's gross domestic product, compared with the 1% contributed by agriculture. Tourism is estimated to be worth about £96 billion a year.

At this time of the year the countryside tourist industry - worth £12 billion a year in England alone - is already losing an estimated £100 million a week, and faces a nightmare Easter season as visitors stay away.

American tourists are staying away from Britain in droves because of the foot-and-mouth crisis, leading to an estimated $3bn loss in trade by Easter.

Almost two-thirds of people planning an Easter trip to the British countryside have cancelled their holiday because of the foot-and-mouth crisis. An internet survey, by an organisation linked to the National Farmers' Union, shows many of those questioned are still unsure what is open to the public and are staying away. Official government figures show British tourism is being devastated by the foot-and-mouth crisis. One hotel in Cumbria has seen its bookings fall by 97%. The south-west, one of the worst hit areas, is reporting income losses of £51m for March, and its tourist board has called for additional financial support to help badly affected businesses.

Culture Secretary Chris Smith told cabinet colleagues that income from tourism in parts of Cumbria and Devon is down by as much as 80%, and by 10% overall nationally.

Tourism Minister Janet Anderson indicated to BBC News Online that cabinet ministers would be spending their holidays in the UK in solidarity with the tourism industry while the disease continued.

She accepted that more needed to be done to speed up the slaughter process with only 50,000 of the 1.5m animals earmarked for culling on welfare grounds so far processed. Suffering to animals was – and is – intense:

• Cows went painfully unmilked.
• Animals gave birth unattended, in sodden fields with lambs drowning as they were born.
• Cattle and sheep went un-fed and starved.
• It was not possible to attend to injured animals, who were left to suffer.
• If animals had been kept in their current condition before FMD, the RSPCA would have had an open and closed case for prosecution for cruelty leading to fines, imprisonment or both – and yet farmers were banned from moving their animals a few yards to fresh pasture or safety.

The medium and long term consequences have yet to be assessed, but they will affect everybody and some unexpected dependencies have been exposed. Just a few examples:

• The British Tourist Authority has told BBC News Online that it could take years to return overseas visits to pre-outbreak levels.
• Travel agents, airlines, the rail and coach industries are all affected by reduced leisure and business travel. Just one example: Leeds castle, in Kent, has axed 200 jobs.
• The postponement of the UK County and General Elections (expected 3^rd May and, on 4^th April postponed until 7^th June) has cost up to £10 million in early, aborted and protracted political advertising. Cancellation costs on poster advertising can be 90%: the choice is effectively to lose the hoarding advertising budget or let the advertising run a month early. Since farmers represent only 3% of the electorate, their interests come low in the government’s election priorities.
• The cost of meat has increased and some 30% of the population is said to be considering vegetarianism, having a permanent impact on farm incomes.
• 9,000 Chinese takeaways and 1,000 Chinese restaurants report trade down from between 20% to 40% following an unsubstantiated statement that infected swill said to be the cause of FMD outbreak came from a Chinese restaurant. 75% of the 300,000 Chinese living in Britain work in the food trade.
• The betting and leisure industries have lost millions – the cancellation of the Cheltenham Gold Cup was said to cost Cheltenham some £2-£3 million. Badminton horse trials and the Royal Bath and West Show have been cancelled with a similar impact. Betting turnover is said to be down by over £100 million.
• Rare breeds have been perfunctorily killed and may be lost for ever.
• The Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) has stopped farmers using artificial insemination for their cows and banned farmers from buying bulls to service their cows. No calves, no milk. No milk for the next year, hitting farm incomes and increasing the cost of living as imports compensate. The only source of income for some farmers will have been removed and the average farm income (£57 / hectare) will sink even lower, causing bankruptcies and suicides.
• Angling, a sport enjoyed by over 2 million, has been disrupted since many rivers, streams, lakes and canals are on dairy or sheep farm land. Spending in angling venues has been greatly reduced with consequent impact on local incomes.
• Hunting has been cancelled for a season. Hunt servants and the 16,000 jobs depending on hunting are in jeopardy and, regardless of the anti-hunting bill, its demise will be hastened.
• Shoots have cancelled the 2001 – 2002 season. Breeders of game birds will go bankrupt and the pheasant and partridge population will diminish. Local hotels will suffer from the loss of crucial trade in the winter. The country jobs of beating and picking up will not be there – these are not just pin-money jobs, but essential sources of income in some subsistence farming areas of Wales and Scotland.
• Hefted (territorial) sheep have been culled. It can take generations for their territory to become imprinted on their offspring. The alternatives are that moors and heath return to nature (inpenetrable gorse) or become fenced.
• Consider a typical dairy farmer – his best income over the last 3 years has been £6,000. He has a wife and three children to keep. Farmers like him cannot continue. Small farmers will no longer be able to service the touristic countryside: large farming conglomerates will take over. On 11^th April it was reported that the government expect 50,000 small farmers to go out of business and farms to become consolidated. The face of the countryside may be changed for ever and with it a permanent loss of tourists

Lessons Not Learnt

Almost nothing was learned from the lessons of the 1967 – 68 outbreak of FMD and the subsequent report:

• To save £250,000 a year, the unit was disbanded which could have detected the rogue sheep trading that is largely the cause of the disaster – did nobody do an impact analysis?
• Animal movements were permitted to continue for one to two weeks after the outbreak – doubling the size of the problem.
• Red tape prevented vets on the spot from backing their diagnosis and promptly killing sick animals.
• Delays were caused by Environmental legislation and lack of coordination between environmental experts, water companies and farmers so that corpses were left unburied for weeks.
• Delay in calling in the army led to logistic shambles.
• Although the British Veterinary Association offered the help of 500 vets, MAFF turned them down. Vet students were not drafted in for weeks
• Conflicting messages – keep out of the countryside, but the countryside is open – led to the worst of both worlds – possibly contributing to the spread of the disease while strangling tourism.
• Protracted timescales between killing animals and disposing of their remains added to the spread of the disease. Roaming foxes (covering wide distances in the mating season) gorged on the carcasses of infected lambs, dragging parts over long distances. High winds and rain carried infection on the air. Infection leached with rain and flood water.
• Burning of infected carcasses may well have caused the disease to spread on the air.
• Political correctness led the government to ignore the offers of help from over one hundred qualified slaughtermen belonging to Hunts, leading to further delays in killing infected animals.
• Offers of help from the Countryside Alliance, to provide slaughterers and retired vets, were ignored.

So, what are the lessons for business continuity? They are clear:

• Without an effective contingency plan, dither and delay compound disaster
• Without prompt, decisive action, losses are compounded
• Clear communication with a consistent message is vital in disaster
• One small disaster (a single case of FMD) can affect hundreds and thousands of businesses and apparent onlookers in different industries and even in countries remote from the original victim.

© Andrew Hiles 2001

Director, Kingswell

Founding former Chairman, Survive